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Modeling paper material flows and recycling in the US macroeconomy

IP.com Disclosure Number: IPCOM000128118D
Original Publication Date: 1999-Dec-31
Included in the Prior Art Database: 2005-Sep-14
Document File: 12 page(s) / 36K

Publishing Venue

Software Patent Institute

Related People

Taylor, Henry F: AUTHOR [+3]

Related Documents

http://theses.mit.edu:80/Dienst/UI/2.0/Describe/0018.mit.theses/1999-103: URL

Abstract

Recycling, especially paper recycling, has become a de-facto public policy during the last three decades of the 20th Century. At the cusp of the new millenium it receives widespread support. Unfortunately, at the same time, this well-intentioned and locally rational action has also been soundly criticized based on the observed market instabilities in the industry that are the cause of poor performance by firms. This poor performance, especially in the case of paper, threatens the value and usefulness of recycling as an environmental strategy. Many current works that address recycling issues fail to recognize that the basis for the behavior, problematic or otherwise, is the linked set of markets that cause the materials, in the form of products and by-products, to flow through the entire macroeconomy. The sources of this behavior include both the internal structure of the sectors from which the markets are comprised as well as the linkages between the markets. To understand the potential problems in the paper recovery and associated markets and to assess remedies, this thesis develops and explores a new, integrated, macroeconomic model using the system dynamics method. The model is calibrated to paper material- flowrelated data. It replicates problematic behaviors in the paper market, and describes their genesis, and forecasts their effects the future. Analyses undertaken with the model also describe outcomes from several different .commonly proposed interventions in terms of market stability, production, profitability, resource utilization, and overall recovery. [2]

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 This record is the front matter from a document that appears on a server at MIT and is used through permission from MIT. See http://theses.mit.edu:80/Dienst/UI/2.0/Describe/0018.mit.theses/1999-103 for copyright details and for the full document in image form.

Modeling Paper Material Flows and Recycling In the US Macroeconomy

by

Henry F. Taylor III
SMCE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology BSCE, University of Maryland, College Park Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy
Sloan School Of Management

at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

June 1999
SIGNATURE OF author: [[signature omitted]]

Technology Management and Policy Program

June 1999
CERTIFIED BY: [[SIGNATURE OMITTED]]
John D. Sterman
J. Spencer Standish Professor of Management Director, System Dynamics Group Sloan School Of Management
ACCEPTED BY: [[SIGNATURE OMITTED]]

Richard de Neufville Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering Chairman, Technology, Management and Policy Program
ARCHIVES MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY LIBRARIES JUL 02 1999

Abstract

Massachusetts Institute of Technology Page 1 Dec 31, 1999

Page 2 of 12

Modeling paper material flows and recycling in the US macroeconomy

Recycling, especially paper recycling, has become a de-facto public policy during the last three decades of the 20th Century. At the cusp of the new millenium it receives widespread support. Unfortunately, at the same time, this well-intentioned and locally rational action has also been soundly criticized based on the observed market instabilities in the industry that are the cause of poor performance by firms. This poor performance, especially in the case of paper, threatens the value and usefulness of recycling as an environmental strategy.

Many current works that address recycling issues fail to recognize that the basis for the behavior, problematic or otherwise, is the linked set of markets that cause the materials, in the form of products and by-products, to flow through the entire macroeconomy. The sources of this behavior include both the internal structure of the sectors from which the markets are comprised as well as the linkages between the markets.

To understand the potential problems in the paper recovery and associated markets and to assess remedies, this thesis develops and explores a new, integrated, macroeconomic model using the system dynamics method. The model is calibrated to paper material- flowrelated data. It replicates problematic behaviors in the paper market, and describes their genesis, and forecasts their effects

the future. Analyses undertaken with the model also describe outcomes from several different
.commonly proposed interventions in terms of market stability, production, profitability, resource utilization, and overall recovery.

[2]

Acknowledgements

I took the initial step of this journey sitting in the aisle of an introductory lecture that John Sterman gave in- the Fall of 1992. It was...