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DEVELOPMENT OF A REFINERY / PETROCHEMICAL MASTER PLAN

IP.com Disclosure Number: IPCOM000217611D
Publication Date: 2012-May-08
Document File: 24 page(s) / 2M

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DEVELOPMENT OF A REFINERY / PETROCHEMICAL MASTER PLAN

THE &I. W. KELLOGG COMPANY HOUSTON, TEXAS

INTRODUCTION
The objective of this article is to discuss the methodology associated with the development of a master plan for a refinery/petrochemical complex located in the FarEast and the importance of performing a comprehensive feasibility study in the early stages of a project. The synergies and interaction of a hels refinery, an olefins comples and a gasification/power complex will be reviewed. Technology selection will be discussed to provide a basis for developing options to meet the specific client requirements for both hels and petrochemical products. The product markets will be presented to provide a basis for hture opportunities. Thls will be followed by a description of the study methodology and the syner9es anticipated.

The market forecast is drawn from a recent study prepared by Purvin & Gertz, which reviewed the worldwide energy and petrochemical markets. Prior to the recent economic developments in the region, the economies of most countries in the Far East grew at phenomenal rates in the 1990-96 period, i.e., 510% per.year. However, Japan's lingering recession during this period held the overall economic growth rate in the Far East to about 4%. The recent economic crisis in the region has significantly impacted the current and short-term growth rates. It is anticipated that the economies will rebound in the new millenium and strong economic growth will return.

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  PRODUCT DEM=LUD FORECASTS
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 year range. Crude consumption in the Far East market area increases from 700 million metric tondyear in 1995 to about I200 million metric tons/year in 2015, a growth rate of 2.9?b/year. Asia's rapid move to industrialize is stimulating energy demand. Obviously, the need for petroleum products has been reduced in the short term due to the economic crisis in the region. If the forecasted lon,a-term economic growth rates do not materialize, the demand for petroleum products will also be reduced. The fuels product consumption forecast is shown in Figure 1. Gasoline and distillate continue to grow at the expensz of heavy fuel oil. The naphtha consumption for petrochemicals more than doubles from 1995 to 2015. The compounded annual growth rates for the various products are shown in Figure 2. Wealth created by the economic growth has allowed the upward movement from bicycles to motor bikes and automobiles. Gasoline consumption, which is growing at 3.3% per year, is driven by this trend. Demand for middle distillate is forecasted to increase by 3.1%. The Far East is a cct importer of middle distillatts; consumption of these products has groxyn rapidly. Consumption of jet fuel and kerosene has increased rapidly and is expected to continue to increase at a more moderate rate in the next 20 years. The consumption of residual fuel oil is expected to increase at only 1.1% per year. The Far East is a net impo...