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The Use of Scenarios inn Refinery Investment Analysis

IP.com Disclosure Number: IPCOM000218750D
Publication Date: 2012-Jun-06
Document File: 1 page(s) / 73K

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ABSTKACT

O i l r e f i n i n g has t r a d i t i o n a l l y o p e r a t e d i n an environment of s t a b l e prices. R e c e n t h i s t ( _ ) r yh a s , however, been one of t o p s y - t u r v y c r u d e o i l prices and niisstjd p r o , i s c t i o n s . The q u s s t i t > n now i s how can r e f i n e r s continuo t,ii o p e r a t e p r o f i t a b l y i n t o d a y ' s m a r k e t p l a c e where s t a b i l i t y i s a t h i n g of t h e p a s t .

I n o r d e r t o cope w i t h today'ss i t u a t i o n . r e f i n e r s m u s t r o 2 l i z o t h a t many of t h e changes w h i c h have t a k e n p l a c e o v e r the past 1 5 years are i n f a c t permanent. T h e growth of spot marltot p r i c i n g and t h e i n c l u s i o n of petroleum p r o d u c t s or1 t h e cummrd i t i e s market are examples of these s t r u c t u r a l changes.

T r a d i t i o n a l methods of e v a l u a t i r l g i n v e s t m e n t s must n o w be a1t e r e d t o r e f l e c t t h e volatile n a t u r e of world c r u d e o i l p r i c e s . Where s t a b i l i t y w a s once the r u l e , f l e x i h i L i t y and e f f i c i e n c v are n o w t h e r o u t e t o p r o f i t s i n u e f i n i r l g . I n n o v a t i v e p r o c e s s r o u t e s i n r e fi n e r i a s have been s11-t~

                           in corriing b e c a u s e r e f i n e r i e s w e r e d e s i g n e d f o r a p a r t i c u l a r typw of crude o i l and p r o d u c t d i s t r i b u t i o n was r e l a t lv e l v ckoJ1...