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Applications of Probability Theory in Process Plant Design

IP.com Disclosure Number: IPCOM000221601D
Publication Date: 2012-Sep-14
Document File: 1 page(s) / 33K

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The IP.com Prior Art Database

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APPLICATIONS OF PROBABILITY THEORY IN PROCESS PLANT DESIGN

by


P. R. Martin and J. L. James

S UMMARY

The paper reviews the present state of the art
in the application of the mathematical theory
of probability to problems in Process Plant Design.

Five main areas of activity are identified as follows:


i) Plant reliability analysis

Hazard analysis for the design of protective systems

iii) Optimisation of raw materia~ and product storage facilities

iv) Uncertainty analysis in estimating, scheduling and economic appraisal

v) Risk analysis applied to plant predicted performance characteristics at the design stage.

In each case the basic principles underlying the use
of probability theory are explained, the practical methodology outlined and typical results quoted.

The ways in which modern designers are interpreting
such results and using them to produce improved
designs are discussed. The paper closes with a
look ahead to the future and with a strong recommendation for the more general teaching of the elements of applied probability theory, so as to ensure a greater awareness of its principles, ef its proved and potential fields of application and, indeed, of its limitations too.