Browse Prior Art Database

New System and Methods for Calculating Risks, Probabilities, Economic Cost, and Resiliency through Scenario Analysis of Impact to a Jurisdiction from Expected and Unexpected Events

IP.com Disclosure Number: IPCOM000242922D
Publication Date: 2015-Aug-30
Document File: 5 page(s) / 125K

Publishing Venue

The IP.com Prior Art Database

Abstract

Disclosed is a method for calculating risks, probabilities, economic cost, and resiliency through the analysis of an eventâ?Ts impact to a jurisdiction. The method provides the resiliency in a quantitative manner and a method for using that resiliency score to improve plans for increasing the resiliency of city systems.

This text was extracted from a PDF file.
This is the abbreviated version, containing approximately 25% of the total text.

Page 01 of 5

New System and Methods for Calculating Risks, Probabilities, Economic Cost, and Resiliency through Scenario Analysis of Impact to a Jurisdiction from Expected and Unexpected Events

Critical infrastructure in cities is prone to cascading failures in the event of an emergency. For example, a flood disables an electricity substation, which then disables

a water treatment plant, a then perhaps a hospital. In practice, even cities and emergency response agencies that are aware of these needs tend to think of each critical infrastructure asset separately, without regard to the connections between it and

related assets, quite possibly situated in other infrastructure systems and under the control of different organizations. Systems of systems therefore need to be monitored hardened, with dependences identified; each asset should be related to a system, have redundancy and failures modes mapped to it, with failure mitigation plans and economic

costs of loss identified. These assets must be monitored at the required frequency and over the long-term. Funding of resilience for critical infrastructure can be costly, so risk and cost benefit must be evaluated.

Standard operating procedures and business continuity plans take into consideration a single failure point and the mitigation plan for that failure, but not the mitigation cost. Many factors affect the economic cost of undesired events and possible actions the

jurisdiction can take to achieve the best outcome. Standard assessments evaluate and derive an overall rating at a system level and are designed to quickly build a comprehensive mitigation plan, but do not take into account the system of systems relationship and interactions.

Calculating risk and probability of impact requires a thorough understanding of threats and impacts not only on a jurisdiction's system-by-system basis, but also by system interaction and cascading impacts. Risk, probability, and vulnerability assessments tend to be performed infrequently due to the time, cost, and expertise required. This leads to unreliable risk management plans and standard operating procedures for cross system continuity.

The disclosed method provides the resiliency in a quantitative manner and a method for using that resiliency score to improve plans for increasing the resiliency of city systems. Knowing the resilience of the jurisdiction provides information to help reduce the impact of risk on the known threats, as well as the associated probabilities and the anticipated impact of mitigation actions on vulnerability. Planners can also understand the value of not taking further mitigation actions as well as understand the return on investment and value if mitigation actions are taken in the jurisdiction.

Deriving a system and interaction of systems vulnerability and resilience takes into consideration the discovered dependencies, internal factors, system interactions, possible failure points, cascading risks, and various other defined f...