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Sequential risk prediction analysis Disclosure Number: IPCOM000246835D
Publication Date: 2016-Jul-05
Document File: 5 page(s) / 68K

Publishing Venue

The Prior Art Database


When managing a project or a program, there are always multiple risks, the manager has to be aware of and he has to manage them properly. Unmanaged risks can lead to failure of the whole project or program. Proposition of authors is a new method to predict potential risks that may happen under certain circumstances. The method proposed uses a knowledge base of concrete, that is defined and dynamically added, risks. The knowledge base will contain variously named risks by means of which it will possible to calculate the probability of a given risk with reference to the risks that have already occurred or that are occurring at that point in time. Thanks to that, the project or program manager can be alerted about a possible risk and react properly to handle the situation.

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Sequential risk prediction analysis

In our method, we propose the creation and usage of the Risk Knowledge Base (RKB) in order to predict the sequence of possible risks that can occur while managing a program or a project.

Most of project management methods recommend having records of risks that happened during a project/program in a certain environment and keeping them for future use. We propose building a large database that will contain all those risks collected in a single repository. Based on this data the probability of a given risk can be calculated.

Parameters about the environment that would be required are as follows:

Is it a project or a program?

What is the field (IT, finance, etc.)?

How big is it (how many people are involved)? What is the initial budget?

What is the duration?

Having all the environmental data listed above, a record for each risk (Risk Record) should be created with the following contents:

Risk name

Time of occurrence (not necessarily the date, but the number of days from project/program initialization; date only if the risk is connected to a certain date e.g. 25.12)

Type of impact on the project/program


Suggested action(s) - should be recorded after the program / project ends to verify if the action was effective

Of course, all the data should be anonymous to protect personal/company information.

Using the example provided below, the algorithm of prediction will be described.

There are 5 risks (A, B, C, D, E) defined in the Risk Knowledge Base. The information that A and B happened in project X and C, D, E happened in project Y is recorded. Both projects had a very similar environment (as described above).


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From RKB, we know that risk A has been followed by risk B in project X and risks C and D happened in parallel in project Y and they were followed by risk Y.

We propose an analysis of the sequence of risks as they occurred, to predict what may happen later in a particular project

Following our example, let's assume that we are the management of project Z that has a very similar environment to projects X and Y and that risks A and C occurred in parallel.

By checking RKB, we can realize that there is probability...